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October 27, 2008


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Black Swan

Considering the typical negative reaction by wall street to a democrat in office and current polls, I would think an american black bear market is likely. on the other hand, it is well established that the black bear is the most intelligent of bears, and could restore confidence. i would continue to sit in cash for now as a result.

if a smokey bear market should erupt, however, i would be long water and timber as the increased demand for the former and decreased supply for the latter would lead to price increases.

finally, should a sun bear market come into effect, i would be long with tight stops across the board (except for south american and australian securities), since the northern hemisphere approaching daylight savings and ultimately winter so it wouldn't last.

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